Greenhouse gases soar; no signs warming is slowed (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are building up so high, so fast, that some scientists now think the world can no longer limit global warming to the level world leaders have agreed upon as safe.

New figures from the U.N. weather agency Monday showed that the three biggest greenhouse gases not only reached record levels last year but were increasing at an ever-faster rate, despite efforts by many countries to reduce emissions.

As world leaders meet next week in South Africa to tackle the issue of climate change, several scientists said their projections show it is unlikely the world can hold warming to the target set by leaders just two years ago in Copenhagen.

"The growth rate is increasing every decade," said Jim Butler, director of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Monitoring Division. "That's kind of scary."

Scientists can't say exactly what levels of greenhouse gases are safe, but some fear a continued rise in global temperatures will lead to irreversible melting of some of the world's ice sheets and a several-foot rise in sea levels over the centuries ? the so-called tipping point.

The findings from the U.N. World Meteorological Organization are consistent with other grim reports issued recently. Earlier this month, figures from the U.S. Department of Energy showed that global carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 jumped by the highest one-year amount ever.

The WMO found that total carbon dioxide levels in 2010 hit 389 parts per million, up from 280 parts per million in 1750, before the start of the Industrial Revolution. Levels increased 1.5 ppm per year in the 1990s and 2.0 per year in the first decade of this century, and are now rising at a rate of 2.3 per year. The top two other greenhouse gases ? methane and nitrous oxide ? are also soaring.

The U.N. agency cited fossil fuel-burning, loss of forests that absorb CO2 and use of fertilizer as the main culprits.

Since 1990 ? a year that international climate negotiators have set as a benchmark for emissions ? the total heat-trapping force from all the major greenhouse gases has increased by 29 percent, according to NOAA.

The accelerating rise is happening despite the 1997 Kyoto agreement to cut emissions. Europe, Russia and Japan have about reached their targets under the treaty. But China, the U.S. and India are all increasing emissions. The treaty didn't require emission cuts from China and India because they are developing nations. The U.S. pulled out of the treaty in 2001, the Senate having never ratified it.

While scientists can't agree on what level of warming of the climate is considered dangerous, environmental activists have seized upon 350 parts per million as a target for carbon dioxide levels. The world pushed past that mark more than 20 years ago.

Governments have focused more on projected temperature increases rather than carbon levels. Since the mid-1990s, European governments have set a goal of limiting warming to slightly more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current levels by the end of this century. The goal was part of a nonbinding agreement reached in Copenhagen in 2009 that was signed by the U.S. and other countries.

Temperatures have already risen about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology professors Ron Prinn, Henry Jacoby and John Sterman said MIT's calculations show the world is unlikely to meet that two-degree goal now.

"There's very, very little chance," Prinn said. "One has to be pessimistic about making that absolute threshold." He added: "Maybe we've waited too long to do anything serious if two degrees is the danger level."

Andrew Weaver at the University of Victoria, Granger Morgan of Carnegie Mellon University and Gregg Marland of Appalachian State University agreed with the MIT analysis that holding warming to two degrees now seems unlikely.

"There's no way to stop it. There's so much inertia in the system," Morgan said. "We've committed to quite a bit of warming."

Prinn said new studies predict that if temperatures increase by more than two degrees, the Greenland ice sheets will start an irreversible melting. And that will add to sea level rise significantly.

"Over the next several centuries, Greenland slowly melts away," Weaver said.

___

Online:

World Meteorological Organization's Greenhouse Gas Bulletin: http://bit.ly/vu04vB

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/science/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111121/ap_on_sc/un_greenhouse_gases

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Oceans Teem With Tiny Plastic Particles

60-Second Earth60-Second Earth | Energy & Sustainability

Washing machine waste water carries tiny pieces of plastic to the oceans, where they wind up in sea life. David Biello reports.

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Swirls of trashed plastic litter the seven seas. But it's not the enormous plastic patches that pose the biggest pollution problem. Instead it's bits of plastic less than one millimeter in size.

Such microplastic litters shorelines like grains of sand, floats in the open ocean and even sinks down to the deep sea. And sampling the microplastic on shorelines reveals that most of it comes from sewage. That?s according to an analysis in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. [Mark Anthony Browne et al, Accumulation of Microplastic on Shorelines Woldwide: Sources and Sinks]

But how did the microplastic get in the sewage in the first place? Most of the particles were plastics commonly used in clothes ? polyester and acrylic. Similar levels of such particles were found in the discharge from nearby sewage treatment plants. And that means most of the microplastics were coming from our washing machines.

Fleece is the worst shedder. But various plastic-based garments can lose more than 1,900 fibers per wash. The solution may be to add better filters, either to washing machines or to the sewage treatment plants that deal with all the wash water.

Otherwise, all that plastic ends up stored in cells of sea life. And that's not very clean.

?David Biello

[The above text is a transcript of this podcast]


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PBPjasonlieser: Gators QB John Brantley throws his career-high 4th TD pass, a 64-yd shot to Debose. Florida now up 37-25 on Furman, late Q3.

Loader Gators QB John Brantley throws his career-high 4th TD pass, a 64-yd shot to Debose. Florida now up 37-25 on Furman, late Q3.

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NASA's Chandra helps describe the birth of a black hole

Friday, November 18, 2011

New details about the birth of a famous black hole that took place millions of years ago have been uncovered, thanks to a team of scientists who used data from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory as well as from radio, optical and other X-ray telescopes.

Over three decades ago, Stephen Hawking placed -- and eventually lost ? a bet against the existence of a black hole in Cygnus X-1. Today, astronomers are confident the Cygnus X-1 system contains a black hole, and with these latest studies they have remarkably precise values of its mass, spin, and distance from Earth. With these key pieces of information, the history of the black hole has been reconstructed.

"This new information gives us strong clues about how the black hole was born, what it weighed and how fast it was spinning," said author Mark Reid of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) in Cambridge, Mass. "This is exciting because not much is known about the birth of black holes."

Reid led one of three papers -- all appearing in the November 10th issue of The Astrophysical Journal -- describing these new results on Cygnus X-1. The other papers were led by Jerome Orosz from San Diego State University and Lijun Gou, also from CfA.

Cygnus X-1 is a so-called stellar-mass black hole, a class of black holes that comes from the collapse of a massive star. The black hole is in close orbit with a massive, blue companion star.

Using X-ray data from Chandra, the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer, and the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics, a team of scientists was able to determine the spin of Cygnus X-1 with unprecedented accuracy, showing that the black hole is spinning at very close to its maximum rate. Its event horizon -- the point of no return for material falling towards a black hole -- is spinning around more than 800 times a second.

An independent study that compared the evolutionary history of the companion star with theoretical models indicates that the black hole was born some 6 million years ago. In this relatively short time (in astronomical terms), the black hole could not have pulled in enough gas to ramp up its spin very much. The implication is that Cygnus X-1 was likely born spinning very quickly.

Using optical observations of the companion star and its motion around its unseen companion, the team made the most precise determination ever for the mass of Cygnus X-1, of 14.8 times the mass of the Sun. It was likely to have been almost this massive at birth, because of lack of time for it to grow appreciably.

"We now know that Cygnus X-1 is one of the most massive stellar black holes in the Galaxy," said Orosz. "And, it's spinning as fast as any black hole we've ever seen."

Knowledge of the mass, spin and charge gives a complete description of a black hole, according to the so-called "No Hair" theorem. This theory postulates that all other information aside from these parameters is lost for eternity behind the event horizon. The charge for an astronomical black hole is expected to be almost zero, so only the mass and spin are needed.

"It is amazing to me that we have a complete description of this asteroid-sized object that is thousands of light years away," said Gou. "This means astronomers have a more complete understanding of this black hole than any other in our Galaxy."

The team also announced that they have made the most accurate distance estimate yet of Cygnus X-1 using the National Radio Observatory's Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). The new distance is about 6,070 light years from Earth. This accurate distance was a crucial ingredient for making the precise mass and spin determinations.

The radio observations also measured the motion of Cygnus X-1 through space, and this was combined with its measured velocity to give the three-dimensional velocity and position of the black hole.

This work showed that Cygnus X-1 is moving very slowly with respect to the Milky Way, implying it did not receive a large "kick" at birth. This supports an earlier conjecture that Cygnus X-1 was not born in a supernova, but instead may have resulted from the dark collapse of a progenitor star without an explosion. The progenitor of Cygnus X-1 was likely an extremely massive star, which initially had a mass greater than about 100 times the sun before losing it in a vigorous stellar wind.

In 1974, soon after Cygnus X-1 became a good candidate for a black hole, Stephen Hawking placed a bet with fellow astrophysicist Kip Thorne, a professor of theoretical physics at the California Institute of Technology, that Cygnus X-1 did not contain a black hole. This was treated as an insurance policy by Hawking, who had done a lot of work on black holes and general relativity.

By 1990, however, much more work on Cygnus X-1 had strengthened the evidence for it being a black hole. With the help of family, nurses, and friends, Hawking broke into Thorne's office, found the framed bet, and conceded.

"For forty years, Cygnus X-1 has been the iconic example of a black hole. However, despite Hawking's concession, I have never been completely convinced that it really does contain a black hole -- until now," said Thorne. "The data and modeling described in these three papers at last provide a completely definitive description of this binary system."

###

Chandra X-ray Center: http://chandra.harvard.edu

Thanks to Chandra X-ray Center for this article.

This press release was posted to serve as a topic for discussion. Please comment below. We try our best to only post press releases that are associated with peer reviewed scientific literature. Critical discussions of the research are appreciated. If you need help finding a link to the original article, please contact us on twitter or via e-mail.

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The Capture of Gaddafi's Son: The Reformer Who Refused to Reform (Time.com)

Up until the moment Libya descended into catastrophic violence last February, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi was under strong pressure by close associates to break ranks with his father's regime. They believed that he, more than anyone else, might have been able to save his country from a disastrous eight-month war, one of Saif's former top aides told TIME in an interview. Now, Saif's final role will instead be as a reviled defendant on trial, rather than a political hero, and could face life imprisonment or execution.

Libyan forces finally cornered the fugitive Saif al-Islam on Saturday near the Libyan Sahara town of Sabha, about 400 miles (650 kms) south of Tripoli. Gaddafi's 39-year-old son ? his father's closest advisor and likely successor ? had been on the run for more than four weeks, after apparently fleeing on Oct. 20 as rebels closed in on Muammar Gaddafi in his home town of Sirte. As rebels set upon his father and killed him that day, Saif is believed to have slipped past rebel checkpoints and escaped into Libya's vast desert. (See pictures of Libyans celebrating their newfound liberation.)

Tripoli erupted in wild rejoicing on Saturday afternoon as news broke of Saif's capture. As people fired guns in the air, it was unclear who ? Libya's armed militias or the country's nascent government ? would decide whether Saif would be handed over for trial by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, or jailed and tried in Libya itself. Saif's capture was announced by Bashir Thaelba, a leader of Libya's Zintan brigade, who said he was being held in that town, west of Tripoli. "We are going to treat him well as a war prisoner," he was quoted saying on Saturday.

But Youssef Sawani believes that Saif might have avoided that fate altogether ? and in the process changed the course of Libyan history ? if only the dictator's heir had listened to him and others who begged him back in February to join the rebels before it was too late. "My recommendation to him before the revolt was to dissociate himself completely from the regime," says Sawani, the former executive director of the Gaddafi Foundation, Saif's hugely powerful political organization. "He could have broken away." (Watch TIME's exclusive interview with Saif.)

Sawani says that on Feb. 6, days before Libya's revolt erupted in eastern Libya, he went to Saif's home and pleaded with him to switch sides. "I suggested to Saif that if he was completely frustrated he should quit, become a dissident and leave the country, and lay the responsibility on the shoulders of the regime."

At the time, Sawani argues, many Libyans would still have accepted Saif at the person best able to stop Libya's descent into all-out violence, and the single best hope to persuade his father to retire in exile. "Libyans were banking on Saif," he says. "He was widely accepted by intellectuals, activists, and the liberal opposition in the diaspora." Sawani's view is disputed in other interviews, including the former rebel Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril, who had previously worked for Saif's National Economic Development Board, and who told TIME last month, "Saif deceived us all. The real Saif was much uglier than his father."

Sawani, who has a political-science doctorate from the University of Canterbury, had been hired by Saif in 2007 to oversee sweeping political reforms in Libya ? changes which Saif has long claimed were blocked by Gaddafi's hard-liners. In interviews, Saif told me in Feb. 2010 and in March this year that his strong efforts to bring democracy to Libya had been stymied by Gaddafi's regime. (See a who's who of the Gaddafi children.)

If it was true that Saif's reform efforts had been stonewalled by Gaddafi's hard-liners, there was a moment in which Saif could well have abandoned his father and carved a new political future, according to Sawani. By early February, Saif was frantic about the Arab Spring spreading to Libya; Egypt's revolution next door had forced President Hosni Mubarak from power on Feb. 11. While demonstrations erupted in Benghazi and surrounding towns, Saif vacillated for days about what to do. Ultimately, says Sawani, Saif could not grasp that the protests would crush his father's 42-year rule. Indeed, in March ? days before NATO's bombing campaign began, Saif told me he believed Gaddafi would quickly end the revolt and reestablish control, even if NATO intervened.

Saif's problem, says Sawani, is that he felt unable to betray his family. Sawani visited Saif at home on Feb. 16, one day before Libya's revolution began, and told him he was resigning as his director. Saif was upset, he says. "It was a time he needed more help and assistance."

Without his reformist aides, Saif's options quickly diminished. On Feb. 20 he sealed his fate, appearing on television vowing to crush the rebellion with extreme violence. Sawani says a close friend of Saif met him shortly before his speech, and agreed with Saif that the younger Gaddafi would appear on TV to reassure Libyans that the regime would "advance their demands." Sawani says he was in touch with rebels in Benghazi that night who had sat glued to the television, hoping that Saif might break away. Instead, Sawani says, "he came out and said the opposite. Everyone was shocked."

What happens next to Saif could be subject to a contentious international battle. Saif is under indictment by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, for allegedly ordering the killing of unarmed protesters in eastern Libya in February, before the rebels took up weapons. Also indicted is Muammar Gaddafi's former intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senoussi, who remains at large. As a U.N. member state, Libya's new leaders are legally expected to transfer Saif to the Dutch capital for trial, but many Libyans are now saying they want to see Saif ? by far the most powerful figure from Gaddafi's era left alive ? tried at home. That would allow millions of Libyans to feel they are receiving redress for their suffering under Gaddafi's ruthless dictatorship.

See pictures of Gaddafi's 40 years in power.

See TIME's special report "The Middle East in Revolt."

View this article on Time.com

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In Bali for summitry, Obama announces trade deals (AP)

BALI, Indonesia ? Tightening ties with Asian nations as China's might rises, President Barack Obama prepared Thursday to be the first U.S. president to take part in a summit of East Asian nations. Ahead of his diplomatic efforts here, the White House announced trade deals to show progress on the jobs front back home.

Security issues and the U.S. vision for an increasingly robust American role in Asia are expected to be central themes for Obama's participation in the East Asia Summit in Bali. But concerns over China may shadow the president's meetings Friday and Saturday with leaders of smaller Asian nations increasingly alarmed over China's claims to maritime passage and rich oil reserves in the South China Sea.

Obama's political priority remains creating jobs. Timed to his visit in Indonesia, the White House announced the sale of Boeing 737s and General Electric engines to Indonesia, Boeing 777s to Singapore and Sikorsky helicopters to Brunei. Obama officials estimated the moves would support 127,000 American jobs.

Obama's nine-day trip has focused on both expanding economic ties with the soaring Asia-Pacific market and boosting the U.S. military posture in the region. He arrived in Bali on Thursday after stops in Hawaii and Australia.

The president will also get a chance to meet on the summit sidelines with leaders such as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, with whom the president has an especially close personal relationship, as the U.S. looks to bulk up regional alliances and encourage big roles for friends.

For Obama, the visit will mark a homecoming to the country where he lived for four years as a boy after his mother married an Indonesian man and moved them to Jakarta. Obama visited Jakarta last year and spent time during that visit reflecting on his personal ties to Indonesia, something he probably won't have as much time for on this trip. But Obama's background as a Hawaii native partly raised in Indonesia has shown throughout his trip, which began with an economic summit in Honolulu and ends when he departs Bali on Saturday.

While in Bali, Obama will be aiming to expand commercial ties and export opportunities with fast-growing Asia, looking for ways to underscore the connection between his foreign travels and U.S. jobs with an election year approaching. Nuclear nonproliferation, disaster relief and maritime security also are U.S. priorities.

Behind it all, China looms large.

The centerpiece of Obama's visit to Australia was announcement of a new military agreement that will allow more U.S. military aircraft and a rotating presence of U.S. Marines into Australia, a move largely seen as a hedge against China, which immediately objected.

In Bali, Obama will encounter more allies eager for U.S. support as China and its smaller neighbors argue over the South China Sea, an area that is critical to U.S. interests as well.

His stop comes after Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier this week signed a declaration with her counterpart from the Philippines calling for multilateral talks to resolve maritime disputes such as those over the South China Sea. Six countries in the region have competing claims, but China wants them to negotiate one-to-one ? and chafes at any U.S. involvement.

Clinton said the U.S., during the East Asia Summit, "will certainly expect and participate in very open and frank discussions," including on the maritime challenges in the region. Beijing said Tuesday it opposes bringing up the issue at the summit.

It's not clear how much will be said publicly about the dispute, but U.S. officials are quick to note the importance of the South China Sea, where $1.2 trillion in U.S. trade moves annually, according to Adm. Robert Willard, head of the U.S. Pacific Command. Briefing reporters traveling with Obama this week, Willard called it "a vital interest to the region, a national interest to the United States, an area that carries an immense amount of commerce, and an area in which we must maintain maritime security and peace and not see disruptions as a consequence of contested areas."

On Thursday, China was muted in its public response, saying only that more robust American ties to Australia should not harm other countries.

"China has no opposition to the development of normal state-to-state relations," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in Beijing. "We also hope that when developing normal state-to-state relations, one should take into consideration the interests of other countries as well as the whole region and the peace and stability of the region."

Behind the scenes, however, the more assertive U.S. policy toward China was setting Beijing on edge. The government's Xinhua News Agency said the U.S. feels threatened by China's rise and influence in Southeast Asia and said Obama's goal was "pinning down and containing China and counterbalancing China's development."

__

AP White House Correspondent Ben Feller contributed to this report.

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Proposition 8 Timeline: California's Same-Sex Marriage Ban Over The Years (PHOTOS)

California begins registering domestic partners, allowing same-sex couples: hospital visitation rights and health insurance coverage for the dependents of government employees covered by CalPERS, the state retirement system.

California begins registering domestic partners, allowing same-sex couples: hospital visitation rights and health insurance coverage for the dependents of government employees covered by CalPERS, the state retirement system.

Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/17/proposition-8-timeline-_n_1099796.html

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Don't Count Ron Paul Out Yet -- He's a Front-Runner Now (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Ron Paul is a fighter. The Texas congressman has battled into a four-way statistical first place tie for the GOP nomination among likely Iowa voters, CBS reported. He shares the distinction with Herman Cain, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

Technically, Paul came in fourth. But with the margin of error, all four candidates are Iowa front-runners. That's an impressive turnaround for Paul and his followers. His message isn't always standard Republican fare -- at times alternating between refreshing and odd. But Paul knows government and he understands the voters.

Whatever policy messages the eventual nominees will decide to tout on the campaign trail, Americans are overwhelmingly concerned about jobs and the economy. Paul understands that. His message is a bit different than the other candidates and, whether voters agree or not, it is worth giving it a look.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Paul win the Iowa caucuses. His followers are a determined bunch and they do well in caucus turnout. A Paul victory could be a game-changer for other leading candidates who would be forced to address some of his proposals that are being virtually ignored during debate discussions. As a front-runner, Paul would merit an all-out discussion of what he proposes. Without front-runner status, other ideas fall by the wayside in debates.

I don't entirely understand Paul's proposals regarding the Federal Reserve. Some say he wants to abolish it, others say it is major reform that he proposes. Complex issues such as that are difficult to explain in 60-second sound bites, and even harder to explain during a debate when there never is a question about it. The Hill's Brent Budowsky attempted to clarify it in a recent column, only to make the issue more confusing than ever.

Last week, Paul said if Iran's nuclear program was a true threat, then President Barack Obama should go to Congress and ask for a declaration of war. I like the idea of requiring the president to follow the Constitution when it comes to committing the military. Modern presidents have forgotten that. It was refreshing to see one candidate reminding everyone that the American president cannot do just anything they want to do.

I don't know whether Paul can pull together enough supporters, money and political momentum to nudge out the other "frontrunners." What I do know is that the man is serious and he's getting people's attention. That sounds presidential to me.

Dan McGinnis is a freelance writer, published author and former newspaper publisher. He has been a candidate, campaign manager and press secretary for state and local political campaigns for more than 30 years.

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In need of a rebound now, Bachmann uses book to share stories of her past political recoveries (Star Tribune)